TUBERCULOSIS (TB) DATA FOR HIGH BURDEN CITYS IN TAMILNADU FOR USING FORECASTING ANALYSIS

The Box-Jenkins approach, specifically the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, based on the data of the tuberculosis incidence from 2005 -2017 in Tamilnadu, we establish the single ARIMA (2,2,1) model, the combined ARIMA (2,2,1)-ARCH (1) model, and the HW model, which can be used to predict the tuberculosis incidence successfully in Tamilnadu. Comparative analyses show that the ARIMA and ARIMA-ARCH models perform reasonably well, with the ARIMA model being the best in our case. Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global public health problem, especially for considered as high burden cities in Tamilnadu. It is considered by WHO as one of the high burden countries and tuberculosis incidence continues to be very high. Therefore, there is need to continue monitoring and predicting tuberculosis incidence in an effort to make the control of tuberculosis more effective. To the best of our knowledge, this is the First study to establish the ARIMA model and ARIMA-ARCH model for pre-diction and monitoring the yearly incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Tamilnadu. Based on the results of this study, the ARIMA (2,2,1) and ARIMA (2,2,1) - ARCH (1) models are suggested to give tuberculosis surveillance by providing estimates on tuberculosis incidence trends in Tamilnadu.